By Emmanuel Mwamba
I remember UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema leading in Internet opinion polls in 2006 beating Michael Sata and Levy Mwanawasa in a distant 2nd and 3rd.
This was on website ran by one of our colleagues in the diaspora.
But the electoral vote and results were markedly different.
In 2008 Hichilema was also leading in the same opinion polls. But the voter results remained different.
The 2011 opinion poll remain fresh and its results. There were several. But the credible ones were those conducted by Dr. Neo Simutanyi who predicted an MMD win.
Another internet poll predicted Hichilema as the winner.
The respected steadman report showed a tight race between Rupiah Banda and Michael Sata but gave Banda an edge.
Offcourse the voter had a last laugh.
So the latest results showing Hakainde Hichilema leading Edgar Lungu 81% to 16% is clearly laughable.
Until our voters adopt and begin to use new technologies and until sms and internet polls reflect the genuine views and wishes of the voters, then an opinion poll such as one conducted by Muvi Tv will be respected.
In my analysis I referred to a scientific opinion poll that at least met basic requirements like a sample size that consists of voters.
And offcourse there is a dark but dominant side to this. We are aware of the manipulation.
“you gather a few young people in a room and give them talk time to vote again and again or the other standing group gathered to make repeated phone calls to radio talk shows to create an artificial popularity.
That approach cheats only oneself. But the actual results have shown again and again who wins.
At least I witnessed this manipulation when an online paper ran results from the QFM Radio polls last week.
When I visited QFM Radio to understand how the opinion poll was conducted and its results, we established for example that over 300 votes were attributed to 3 people that voted repeatedly on the website.
So only those who are not aware of activities designed to create an artificial opinion or popularity will get concerned.
I can confidently say this result from Muvi Tv has not escaped such manipulation.
The aggression shown by Hichilema in this election is understandable. He has dedicated huge resources for his publicity and has paid huge sums to the TV stations.
For this attempt at the presidency is clearly his last one. He has been at it since 2006.
But the voters are not aware that this his last attempt. …and will vote in power whoever they think will lead them better.
I am supporting HH but I know its true he has always won online opinion polls. There was one time it was actually discovered thousands of votes were “cast” from one IP address. Its part of propaganda. Even the margin says it all. These elections will be close and it’s folly to engineer opinion polls
CONTINUE YAPPING SURELY YOU WILL SOON MEET WITH REALITY. NO MISTAKE THIS TIME ITS HH ZAMBIA FORWARD!
continue dreaming with cows
Let him win the Oponion polls but the General election will teach him a lesson and his supporters they will never forget.
Stup……Basopo I’ll Insult you if you are not careful.
ELECTIONS ARE NOT WON ON OPINION POLLS BUT VOTERS COUNTED AFTER REAL VOTERS HAD CAST OUT THEIR VOTES. SO FOR THOSE BASING THEIR WIN ON THIS POLLS THERE ARE FOOLING THEMSELVES.ITS SADDEN ME TO SEE HH FAILURE TO LEARN FROM HIS LAST MISTAKES.IN THE PREVIOUS POLLS HH HAD A LOT OF OPINION IN HIS FAVOUR BUT HE ENDED UP LOOSING BADLY BY SATA WHO WAS ALWAYS LOSING IN THIS OPINION POLLS.SO HH AND UPND STOP FOOLING YOURSELF AND APPROACH REAL VOTERS WHO ARE COMFORTABLY SITTING IN THEIR HOMES WAITING FOR THAT DAY TO CAST THEIR VOTE
country men have you noticed the negative reporting on MUVI TV and his sister news paper POST. Let them say what they want. At the end of the day its us who will be voting. Am calling all true PF MEMBERS to be calm and be forcus.They will be ashemed one day and this iday is coming soon.infact these two entities are doing us a good coz they are marketing our candidate. remeber hoe chanda chimbwi did to our president but at last SATA became president.
we are cool and collected ready for that day with EL
Pf will win the elections. The so called Judge I know he will collapse on 22.01.15. History has a way of repeating itself, Tonga’s will never rule this nation. HH has never been an MP before never a minister or a simple Ward Cselor . When you are applying for a job the employer will first look at the C.V but what is the C.V for HH. Let him remain red for danger who cares!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sara,
The opinion poll from MUVI TV is obviously unscientific and thus unrepresentative of all eligible and registered voters in Zambia. For one thing, only those with access to MUVI TV, with cell phones and enough talk time, and with enough enthusiasm to participate in such opinion polls voted. This leaves out a large segment of the population of eligible and registered voters with different characteristics from those I have referred to. For an opinion poll to be considered valid, it must accurately reflect the target population. In other words, every eligible Zambian voter must have an equal chance of being part of the sample MUVI TV used in this poll. Can you or MUVI TV prove to us that this was a scientific opinion poll? Can you tell us the sampling design used – probability or nonprobability? Can you give us the margin of error of the poll and statistically demonstrate the extent to which the results of the poll accurately and validly reflect the views of all eligible and registered voters in the country?
I agree with you 100%. That is a fictitious opinion poll and not a scientific one. The sample is not representative of the total population of eligible voters. It is one drawn from those with access to Muvi TV as well as Airtel and Zamtell subscribers, irrespective of whether they are eligible voters or not. Secondly,it allows anyone with enough talk time to participate in the poll as many times as possible not giving participants an equal and fair chance. It is for these reasons and others that you do not find serious and scientific opinion polls in mature democracies conducted on TV.This all goes to show how the mickey mouse TV station, MUVI, is hell bent on making Zambians belive HH is winning preparing ground for HH and UPND to dispute the elections once Edgar wins. The unscientific MUVI poll is a sure recipe for anarchy.
Lets wait and see wat will happen. Viva E. Lungu
Vote Eddy Mafia – PF on 20 January
300 votes by 3 people?Unfortunately that cant happen on 20th of next month.Hakaivotela Humwine as long i shall vote 4 S.C. chagwa i got no worries.
LONG AWAITED PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE IS ON, ALL CANDIDATES HAVE CONFIRMED PARTICIPATION, ITS ON 30TH DECEMBER.
Tumfweko, go get data and post. I mentioned how wonderful it would be to see these people debate, but PF cadres in here I can even mention them started insulting and saying its not necessary – ni Edgar cabe. Now lets see the presidential material. I cant wait.
Icimutwe!!!!!! So wt if he is not there?
so upnd will win 80% of the vote? wat crap!
Honestly 81% to 16 % is surely laughable. Edgars aka wina no matter what GBM can do with his money. instead of using his weight correctly alefwaya alange Edgar ati nao ni factor. Bwaice ubo ba Mwamba
Muvi Tv is bent on dividing da nation. Most of their reporting is provocative and unprofession. This is evidence of their opiniom poll which captures ineligible voters. Be objective and exhibit professionalism as a media house.
That is the problem if one is against you he is Zairian if a Zairian supports you he is Zambian. One of the Bemba supporting HH has origins in Tanganyika. His father was sent to nothern province by the colonial government from Tanganyika
chakwa lungu akafye GBM foolish
Opinion poll-thats what it is called. Propaganda we know, stupidity we know, intimidation we know and bullying we know—this is what we know of HH. So, here in Lambaland– Ba HH bamatukutuku neman sangalatoni, tapalipo eko lukuya. HH is is very artificial–we know that. No vote for HH from us true Lambas and Kopalas.
Enjoy that fantasy of Opinion Poll
i think da UPND r stiqll in bed pliz guys
Yes Do not mind Muvi, Post and Watch dog.
Its clear ba Muvi are pro HH this time around. Though i liked the questions Coster Mwansa gave EL lasnite. He gave EL lead – give away questions but EL did not come out robustly. He dd not capitalise.Please ba Mwamba help EL! He needs to come out more strongly. The enemies are many and loud. Naive people are hearing cheap politickig from HH. Please tell EL to step up the running. Tuli kumafaino ka! No Joking! See even the big snakes are coming out open fibene GBM!
@tribalist: Imagine even GBM now has endorsed HH. The margin will be even greater. Adolf S Hittler had a minister of propaganda called Himmaller just like EL has EMwamba.
It has been discovered that people who comment based on tribal lines who for some time have been masquerading as bembas are actually aliens from Zaire who came into Zambia using backdoors. Real bembas are are social, intelligent, respectful, have no problem to mix no wonder they are found everywhere east, west, south and central. They too, are good analysers and support any QUALITY leader. These facts are there in schools, churches and anywhere else. The people on this platform who insult are ba ‘mwisa’ who came running and now they want to establish themselves here. These tribal remarks where not here even in the pre-independence time when actually people were primitive. Mainza Chona could hand over power to KK selflessly. In the 1964 elections H Nkumbula told the whites that his votes were for KK as well which made KK get the required 50% plus votes to have Zambia independent. Ever since there was no tribalism remarks. 1991 FTJ was voted highest in ALL the polling stations in Southern Province so as is in 1996. Unfortunately, during this period of liberalised economy Zaireans came as traders and by time even forget that they were foreigners thus with their genes of fighting and dancing they begun to speak louder than the real Zambians. They found opportunities for music and dancing but there were no opportunities for fighting thus they started tribal campaigns with few leaders like late Sata who could tolerate it to an extent of misleading him so much that in 2006 he was told not campaign in Western, Southern and North Western saying he could win in only six provinces. This did not work. These ba mwisa have continued to promote tribalism to unsuspecting leaders, cadres and ordinary citizens even deceiving pastors. Not only that but also to an extent of establishing media houses. Now that we know! Now that we are aware! You will not succeed. Zambians are one. Bembas dialects ,tongas dialects , lozi dialects, nyanja dialects, Lunda dialects, Luvale dialects and Kaonde dialects are all one. And you mwisas will not break the bond of oneness our forefathers gave us. Just go back to where you do two things;when you are not dancing then you are fighting. Leaders wake up and check who is surrounding you. Reject these foreigners and their children who they have taught wrong things such as bembas and tongas are at war! Which war? Why then are they not tribal cousins? Tell them that in this piece of land called Zambia war is never permanent and if tribal war arose , the two tribes become tribal cousins. So you zaireans be shameful of yourselves.
Pamafi you cant survive this time around coz even your own legs are eating you.We shall see how Vodka will survive. In fact he has even chicken out from the debate.what a vision-less leader .He has nothing to tell us. pls Masebo, sampa and GMB drink this spirit and eat the hoyenas
every 5 eligible voters you meet 3 are for Lungu.
Am damn sure cows in concluding the opinion poll, so cows will vote for him, forward cows!
Am damn sure cows were hired to conduct this opinion poll so forward cows!
Hello PF Supporters,
I am appealing to each and every Registered voter in PF to ensure that raise our temple.
HH knows this is his last attempt at the Presidency and he has offloaded his last coin and has hired all sorts of professionals to write about anything that improves his image. Unfortunately this is not working and he is becoming even more desperate.
You have seen all those dead politicians decimated by 2011 election of HE MCS come to life with all that they can give. While they have all seen that they cannot beat the PF, they are so bitter they are prepared to fight to the bitter end.
Imaging the bitterness from the following people;
1. HH
2. VJ
3. Marin Manawesu
4. Kabinga Mpanga
5. etc
These are bitter persons.
Now comrades, what do we need to do? Be steadfast, composed and laugh at the desperate propaganda in the media. That propaganda should be seen as a reflection of our strength for you cannot try to kill a mosquito with a slage hummer.
Make sure you laugh at these people when they lie and become more desperate and begin to cry.
20th January, let has put HH in his coffin for ever. We are tired of this same name. We need other people from UPND. Unfortunately for them all of the others are too weak. They are hemophiliacs who could bleed to death once nicked by the real world of politics.
HH vs lungu?question is who is going to be a good leader tonga orwhtever?
remember my brothers not all pipo watch muvi tv not all pipo know this voting via phones we are voting on 20th am seing one candidate wil not believe the outcome of the election results same as that ov 2001 pipo went to court in disbelief,elections are not won by phones but through BALLOT lets just wait the night ov 20th january wil speak god wil answer.
Bamudala Balibakali but when he went to state house a few months down the line he changed soft hearted so, guys issue with Eddie is simple icusumalyonse kulaba ukususha, but God the almighty will want to prove himself right, Eddie has a lot of things seen in the history of God helping his own
1. The stuff
2. The boat
3. His own pipo rising against him
Ala fingi mwe
Would want apo bane
HH here in lundazi said he is not a politician but a farmer how do we send a farmer to plot one?HIS EXCERLLENCE EDIGAR CHAGWA LUNGU SC 6th president of the republic of zambia and thats zambia’s choice.
Aba TONGA. One Tonga person from CEC in Kitwe was even boasting that, -: this one yena yesu:.
Upnd will cry faul on 20 january.
Muvi and ZWD are twin sisters when it comes to suporting HH. You remember what costa mwansa said when sata refused to attend their debate. Nga ni ba UPND nga nabaya ku court. Zambians HH is a loser thats final
why are they panicking when lungu fails to attend his own rallys if they know that they will win?. if you are concern about the affairs of your neighbour NINSHI ALIKUCILA you will cry like a pre school child that has lost food
Good analysis..though I feel we need propaganda to win something so there’s nothing wrong with what HH is doing bt we shud also remember, too much propaganda puts u in the comfort zone u end up sitting home thnking all is well..accept and concede defeat after elections no matter hw much propaganda,either PF or UPND.
The way MUVI TV is conducting itself leaves much to be desired.This is uncalled for and
I call uporn MISA ZAMBIA to do something about the station.
If it has turned out to be UPND station let the viewers know.
MVULA
I feel sorry for HH even this time he will loose