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What Is Causing The Kwacha Free Fall?
By Mwamba Peni
1. SPECULATIONS
The players on the market are suspecting that the Government may introduce exchange rate controls when the Minister responsible for Finance announces the 2016 budget next month. Therefore, many of them are holding on to their dollars in anticipation of such a move.
2. MINING FIRMS ARE NOT THROWING THE DOLLARS ON THE MARKET.
The average expenditure, operational costs, for all mining firms in Zambia is about USD 500M. Since the advent of turbulences in the global economy, most mining firms are holding on to their dollars and are borrowing from local banks against their balance sheet for operational costs.
3. FALL IN COMMODITY DEMAND AND PRICES
The fall in commodities prices and drmand, which accounts for more than 70 per cent of our total exports, has resulted in lack of foreign exchange for us to pay for all imports hence we are going elsewhere to buy at a price determined by those with dollars.
4. ELECTRICITY DEFICIT
This has affected production especially in export oriented industries which would have brought into the country the needed dollars to stabilize the market.
5. LACK OF DIVERSIFICATION
The Copper business has a ten year circle and with long term planning we should not be caught unprepared. Diversification should start during difficult times because we forget the pain that comes with that during the boom days and thereby maintain the status quo.
Posted by
New Educated Zambia©❤√
September 29, 2015 at 12:25 pm
All those points are down to poor economic management and lack of capacity by the pf to manage easy economics. Very sad.
mwale chanda
September 29, 2015 at 5:25 pm
viva pf we will vote for you next year
katoto
September 29, 2015 at 8:40 pm
IDIOT,2016 KUYA BEBELE.
jack malama
September 30, 2015 at 9:54 am
HH will stimulate the world economy. If you believe that you are fool.
Judge Joe Bidden
September 29, 2015 at 12:34 pm
Those simple points if PF Govt has leaders with basic economics qualifications they would know. Yet they spend so much time on trivial pronouncements only their cadres see sense in them.
Onyx power @vampiros
September 29, 2015 at 2:52 pm
@jj Are you more intelligent than everyone at MOFED. Some commentators kuti waseka. The best you could have said was good points rather than spewing your schooled but uneducated brain in public domain.
Judge Joe Bidden
September 29, 2015 at 3:12 pm
If this came from someone else I would have listened, definitely not you Vampiro.
Mumbi Phiri Cisusu
September 29, 2015 at 4:19 pm
Take an example, BOZ was opposed to the idea of pumping into circulation those borrowed euro bond to the tune of $120m in the hope of stabilizing the kwacha, did Lungu listen to that advice? Instead he went ahead and gave instruction and money was pumped in, has that changed anything? This is exactly what is happening, MOFED just like any other well meaning Zambian, will give advice which the government brushes aside and do things their own way. End result? Mushebwa aile na ntweno kubuko.
Judge Joe Bidden
September 29, 2015 at 6:13 pm
Baleke Lungu feels intimidated to professional advice he would rather listen to people like chanda Kambwili old age Wina Chama etc. We have lots of brilliant Zambians unfortunately we aren’t all PF choir members. Sorry.
Ng'ombe Mbuzi
September 29, 2015 at 6:47 pm
Continue yapping trying to sound intelligent foolish cow.
voice of reason
September 29, 2015 at 12:53 pm
Our humble president is too proud to get sound economic advice.
Ng'ombe Mbuzi
September 29, 2015 at 1:00 pm
NEZ and JJB UPND paid cadres, Chairman and Vice Chairman of UPND Tumfweko Branch.
Judge Joe Bidden
September 29, 2015 at 3:19 pm
Work hard my friend one day you will be living like me no party can afford to pay me, Zambian Govt failed too right now am leaving my school no classes till monday going to visit my friend… in Lancashire. Ukose see you when back to Zambia.
Ng'ombe Mbuzi
September 29, 2015 at 4:54 pm
Fool, claiming to be in UK or Norway does not make you as UPND cadres wise.
Judge Joe Bidden
September 29, 2015 at 6:14 pm
Kosa tata Kosa.
Ng'ombe Mbuzi
September 29, 2015 at 6:42 pm
Typical language of a clueless cow.
Ganja Man
September 29, 2015 at 8:35 pm
@Mbuzi your bitterness will kill you. I think you need prayers.
Ng'ombe Mbuzi
September 30, 2015 at 8:12 am
Tell that to Hakainde and his supporters. They are the real bitter ones in need of prayers.
Israeli
September 29, 2015 at 1:03 pm
Pf leaders can’t see those points coz they are so preoccupied with traveling and site seeing.for them its let’s travel when we are able 2016 is approaching fast
Ka Lungu ububi pa menso
September 29, 2015 at 1:08 pm
Edgar;humble and dull!!!
Judge Joe Bidden
September 29, 2015 at 3:21 pm
We used to ve classmates like that you think he’s humble… but the chap just feels out of place, clueless.
Objective Prophetic Philosopher
September 30, 2015 at 8:13 am
***REASON & LOGIC DELIBERATELY AVOIDED? ***
JJBidden,
I also tried to reason with stooges. It just doesn’t work. It’s sad. They chose not to reason and embrace arrogance. Logic is not common to them. Just see their comments and decipher, you will fail to see common sense. Typical of a parroting seared scope. They have no grounds for their stance but tick-parasitic political phenomenon choir syndrome. Even when presented with facts and evidence in their face, they chose to throw it and insult you for it. I think many of these natives perceive politics as mere competition instead of the pursuit to prudent governance to serve people better. Zambians!!!!!! Not until ……………ehish!!!
Judge Joe Bidden
September 30, 2015 at 10:01 am
Good points right there. Reality will befall upon them possibly that’s when they will realise they are in doldrums.
pillar
September 29, 2015 at 1:13 pm
mr president u have my vote come next u
POLIZAI
September 29, 2015 at 1:37 pm
@PILLAR that’s good tulebakolopa bafikala ba opposition come 2016 especially kachema party they will never rule Zambia.
Czar
September 29, 2015 at 1:38 pm
In your dreams. MMD cadres used to say that.
pillar
September 29, 2015 at 1:40 pm
we will show them the nega nrga formular,bambi thinks that ngatwanyenga ba nina they will blame the govt for not providing social responsibility for her
Ndanje Kahks
September 29, 2015 at 1:47 pm
NEZ & JJB give me your solutions. It is not enough to GOOD ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT. In Bemba land bana Chimbusa demonstrate to the wife to be what to do so do the same. If your solution is viable and nobody takes it then you can complain.
Judge Joe Bidden
September 29, 2015 at 3:27 pm
I wish I knew you personally so we chat over a beer. Edgar decided to leave out educated advisors but sorrounded himself with hyenas not different from Lion Kings 3 stooges all they feared was Mufasa… same time mocking him.
Virus
September 29, 2015 at 6:22 pm
Empty head… No solution at all. Blar blar is all you do.
You are infected.
gumu gumu
September 29, 2015 at 2:03 pm
Thise are the consquences of allowing Simpletons run govt.Zambia wakeup.
captain jack sparrow
September 29, 2015 at 2:04 pm
day in day out, those are the points every economist in Zambia talks about. if that is true then what is the way forward? do those indicators have counter measures or what? why is our economy so susceptible than others? why do we have ecomists in our govt if they fail to correct our economic ills? is it a confirmation that our country is in wrong hands politically?
petenga
September 29, 2015 at 2:18 pm
These listed items to me are saying longterm. The only one which seems as if it can be managed now is the electricity deficit, and this by using scarce dollars to import. Which brings me to magande. Ten years ago sir if you had thought about diversifying seriously instead of being preoccupied with having a balanced budget or whatever you call it. The brave pf government would not be facing these dastardly consequences. Pf will start the process now for the benefits to be seen only in twenty years. Pf forever
petenga
September 29, 2015 at 2:24 pm
The government was in wrong hands. Now we shall be okay
kayula
September 29, 2015 at 2:31 pm
I was thinking PF will be blamed for the down performance of kwacha. This clearly indicates that PF is doing the right thing. lets registter and defend what is right. Zambians lets work and develope our country
Stanzo
September 29, 2015 at 2:31 pm
Aba abena NEZ and JJB baba nechanswa kanwa. You know they comment on everything floated without comining out with feasible solutions. Bane kulanda elyo wishibe. Ala akanwa nimbwa balakaka. Shut it if you have no better things to say.
Judge Joe Bidden
September 29, 2015 at 3:34 pm
Zambian economy is about to explode inside out… you will confirm with me in few weeks.
Rasco
September 29, 2015 at 2:31 pm
PF should be told in the most cleaR TERMS TO REMOVE THEIR dinasour mINISTER OF fINANCE. hOW CAN YOU HAVE A MINISTER WHO SAVED UNDER kk STILL TO SAVE IN THE 21ST CENTURY. a LOT HAS CHANGED SINCE THEN, WE CAN NOT HAVE THOSE FROM THE OLD GENERATION, WHO WERE EVEN REFUSED BY kk TO HAVE THEIR OWN BUSINESSES. bRING IN NEW FRESH BRAINS TWAPAPATA IMWE BANTU.
Jeff Kapembwa
September 29, 2015 at 2:33 pm
If the Government had diversified
We should have surplus Kwachas which we could have invested part in the energy sector.
If the Government had diversified
We could have been earnig a lot of $s for example If we went full scale in say growing cash crops (e.g. tobacco marijuana,cotton etc) we could not have had a shortage of $s
If the Government had diversified
This speculation could not have been there!
So who is to blame?
zega
September 29, 2015 at 2:49 pm
so for me pf is on right track cause that is exactly waht my lovely presido chagwa has been saying.just give him time even if it was your so called learned economist would have face the same thing.offer him solutions unlike just condemning him. for own information he’s only 8 month in power for that matter be fair next time it might be you.
Kachana Banda
September 29, 2015 at 2:50 pm
The answer to this problem is for Zambia to start producing most commodities and lessen on imports, create more factories, embark on fierce agriculture. Stop the blame games,be more accountable and responsible. Be supportive of new ideas and stop shooting down though who think outside the box or those who are hard working. JEALOUSY is what us Zambians know best, the quicker we realise that jealousy is like poison the better for us. Acknowledge other people’s successes, only then can we be successful. And we need to learn to work as a TEAM.
Kachana Banda
September 29, 2015 at 2:51 pm
those ,meant to say.
blackbull
September 29, 2015 at 2:57 pm
the question is who is to blame for the items listed above upnd mmd or pf. can somebody take the blame please before 18/10/15.
mailoni brother
September 29, 2015 at 3:20 pm
ka nez walaba ukubikapo ka boring signature line kobe kaili.ati vote upnd ku last.
richard
September 29, 2015 at 3:28 pm
If we assess the current macro economy using
PESTEL
Political
Economical
Social
Technological
Ecologica
Legal
Investors have no confidence is el and current government, Power deficit failing kwacha, high cost of doing business,cadres in managent.
MAGOYE SWAG
September 29, 2015 at 3:54 pm
Am just enjoying a big Glass of lagar in Taipei while fools like NEZ & JJB are crying over ka Dollar,Goodnite UPND fools
New Educated Zambia©❤√
September 29, 2015 at 9:40 pm
Yes typical of greedy pf fools busy drinking and travelling like lungu while majority are suffering because of dull and humble lungu .you should be ashamed of yourself
bige
September 29, 2015 at 3:57 pm
imwe bane, if sum 1 is not pefoming show them exit no time to waste with these job on training guys. many of his friends told us about this guy that he knows nothing. it was bcoz of sum selfish pipo who needed to eat out the nothing guy. nowonder they die on surpoting nothing.
Big Nose
September 29, 2015 at 3:57 pm
only ticks whisper to a dead animal that even tomorrow we will continue sucking you sir
Kopala muntu
September 29, 2015 at 4:26 pm
Last election, the difference between UPND and PF was very narrow. Now with further economic pressures on the Zambian people, that gap will, and must close, thereby ensuring a possible regime change with HH at the helm.
Denkete
September 29, 2015 at 6:34 pm
welcome to the dream land!!!!! Dream on my boy!!!
Kopala muntu
September 29, 2015 at 4:27 pm
The difference was 1%
Chelamoche
September 29, 2015 at 5:43 pm
Good pointers Mwamba Peni, but what have u bin doing 2 correct de situation yoself?
WANGUNJA
September 29, 2015 at 5:51 pm
EVEN THE KACHEMA GOVT CAN NOT HELP.HH ALSO PLUNDERED IN THE FTJ ERA
John Chinena
September 29, 2015 at 6:41 pm
Everyone knows what is causing the Kwacha to fall. But no one is proposing the solution. All they know is to condemn. Bring out solutions if you feel you have some. For now no one seems to have immediate answers.
Judge Joe Bidden
September 29, 2015 at 7:28 pm
Do you expect professionals to give advice to Edgar on Tumfweko?
Ng'ombe Mbuzi
September 30, 2015 at 8:13 am
As if you are a professional, cow!!!
New Era
September 29, 2015 at 7:47 pm
I really pray 4 my country to be wat it ws designated to be by KK…every province had a company tht ws projected to employ thousands of zambians..eg Mwinilunga pineapples,,Kawambwa Tea,,Mulungushi textiles,,Mansa batteries ETC..ryt now wat zed needs is to diversify completely en venture in thos nascent industriz eg Aviation,,Fisheries,,Manufacturing..let’s reduce on hatred aswell my fellow countrymen
New Educated Zambia©❤√
September 30, 2015 at 7:58 am
If you vote upnd you will get just that. We aim to invest in sustainable manufacturing industries that will ensure long term employment while contributing to the gdp.
Chris chinsmbi
September 29, 2015 at 7:55 pm
What pf has started is the way forward development starts with roads look i have a big farm in kapiri chief chipepo’s area i want to up a tomato processing plant which will be exported to the european market but there is no good road to start the project to bring the much needed dollar to Zambia
peddle
September 29, 2015 at 8:25 pm
Pf may have made mistakes here and there but we shud no that glencore are the biggest employer after govmet and thy contribute 70 percent to the tresury as it is now thy is no market for copper and who suffers Zambia
sitali
September 29, 2015 at 8:32 pm
runing a country is not a joke.Alow credible peaple to rule
real pf
September 29, 2015 at 8:39 pm
Yes we will vote even it reaches k15 ,we will vote for will vote for El,development is everywhere.not u educated Zambian,the uneducated will teach u a lesson come 2016
Big Nose
September 29, 2015 at 8:56 pm
why are we troubling ourselves trying to find hopeless answers to free fall of the kwacha the answer is simple vote out PF if not soon the kwacha will be k40 per 1dollar.MPs you have failed the zambian people resign
Jacko
September 29, 2015 at 10:02 pm
PF HAS FAILED COMPLETELY TO GROW THE ECONOMY,HENCE IMWE BA LUNGU PAMODZI NDI PF YANU WE SHALL NOT VOTE FOR YOU
New Educated Zambia©❤√
September 29, 2015 at 10:36 pm
we thank you and welcome you to the upnd
bige
September 29, 2015 at 10:44 pm
every oposition is a threat to el bcoz he is empty. job on training mune. nowonder sum reasonable pipo in pf are so quiet, how do u help sum 1 who is always drunk, who came without voting.
kakolwe
September 30, 2015 at 4:26 am
So many end-game comments and analyses without factual considerations. Get a simple simile: A boy has failed at Grade 12. What has failed caused that? Answers would include: These days:
-teachers are dull (majority)
-Pupils are unteachable.
-teaching methods are absurd.
-The inspectorate is asleep
-The education system is rotten.
-The government is dual.
A detailed analysis based on the subject will give the actual picture.
kakolwe
September 30, 2015 at 4:31 am
A patient dies in hospital. Were does the blame fall?
These days:
-Doctors/nurses are dull.
-Patients are so neglect that they come to seek medical help when they are totally wasted.
-Government does not provede proper medication/incentives
-Hospitals are understated, etc.
Again, only a subjective analysis would provide answers for specific problems.
kakolwe
September 30, 2015 at 4:40 am
Why am I saying all this?
I feel we need to analyse our current situation in gestult, not just end at Lungu. If we are to blame PF, scan their 4 years in power. Not the 8 months of Lungu.
JJB, I implore you to sit in with that analytical brain your had before Lungu was a factor and ride with me. For NEZ, well, NEZ be you. Your mono-directed vote-upnd-mode has never changed a bit. Sorry boys, I couldn’t join you early yesterday, I had a long journey from 07 and only area he’d the homeland in the evening and had to rest.
kakolwe
September 30, 2015 at 4:49 am
DIVERSIFICATION:
In the 2012 National Budget, When Chikwanda announced that in Agriculture, The government (though ABC pronounces it like GARMENT) was not going the buy all maize but would buy more Soya bean, Sunflower, Wheat and other none traditional crops so as to encourage diversification. What was the response from ALL of us? What were the public pronouncements from opposition leaders?
OPENING UP OF BORDERS FOR FOOD CROP EXPORTS:
2013, Government does that so as the increase the export base and have chances of bringing in the much needed $ and just Cu. What did we say or do?
kakolwe
September 30, 2015 at 4:54 am
2012/13,
Government introduces the auctioning of gemstones from with the nation so as to increase inflow of $.
What did we say/do?
2012 to Date:
Govt picks Road network as the major primary factor for the development .af an economy gone to sleep. What was our cry?
kakolwe
September 30, 2015 at 5:04 am
When Chikwanda wanted to promote other cash crops, opposition parties started campaigns: ‘Nabakana anti tabakashite ifimataba fyenu! They are killing agriculture, they are going into unplanned, researched industry, they should have consulted US, the educated. In the end, govt hand was twisted. Today, our cry is: Dull Pfools, they should have diversified!
‘No! Roads are not the priority, they were not planned for, they are too expensive. Today we are saying, we should have exploited the rich arable land ththroughout Zambia. How when it was inaccessible?
kakolwe
September 30, 2015 at 5:10 am
I summarize rise my cry to say, the biggest contribution to our current economic woes is that where these uneducated kaponyas could have made workable actions an solutions, we, the educated and very intelligent and clever opposers did cleverly shoot it down so that we did not get the credit go to the idiots in power but to us, if, peradventure, we handed into power.
Stupidly, the govt changed their stances on principle once too often.
Kakolwe: Signing off at Kandabwe, Kitwe.
New Educated Zambia©❤√
September 30, 2015 at 8:00 am
Kakolwe you had chance to write dissertations if you ever attended university. Now is not time for such. Learn to be concise
kakolwe
September 30, 2015 at 9:18 pm
Publications to my name boy.
Judge Joe Bidden
September 30, 2015 at 10:27 am
@kakolwe I hear you thou all lot sounded more like a sermon at Mount Sinai. You talked about ideas the Minister of Agric and Finance brought up but got torpedoed by the opposition, my man Zambia doesn’t have a congress system where the Republicans shoots downs the Democrats ideas and fail to implement policies if PF believes it’s policies are feasible why get shaken by the opposition and get derailed? Secondly a determined Govt that knows what’s it doing can’t be dropping ideas just becoz the opposition hates them.
Judge Joe Bidden
September 30, 2015 at 10:51 am
About the “educated” @kakolwe no one has restricted the president to engage professionals or the opposition kinda an Ndaba or conference to map a way forward with our crumbling economy. This is the very president who absconded all the debates other party leaders engaged each other. This is the president who told Zambians he has no time for debates but would therefore rather visit remote areas. All he wanted was wining the election. Now won’t he look foolish to all political parties to discuss way forward for Zambia now that he has failed?