The opposition UPND and NDC held rallies in Kitwe over the weekend that can be deemed successful regardless of which lenses you look at these opposition gathering with. If we were in the shoes of the PF, UPND, NDC and indeed other political parties this is how we would look at these rallies;

PF
Kitwe is the heart of the Copperbelt which province is key to the PF’s political architecture. So for the two opposition parties to move into Kitwe on the same day, at two different venues, and pull such huge rallies should worry the PF. The two rallies, if combined, represent one very large rally as never seen before. The picture is even more gloomy for the PF if one takes into consideration the fact Fred Mmembe and Harry Kalaba also had very successful median party rallies in the same district and same venues only a few months back.

So what does this mean for the PF?
We have seen some rather interesting reactions from Chilufya Tayali and other PF operatives. These reactions are okay for politicking and psychological grand standing. But we would be surprised if we discovered that these are the same theories being bundled around in PF strategy enclaves.

That huge opposition gathering at the weekend is primarily an indication of the people’s displeasure with the PF. Consequently the ruling party must introspect and realise that their messaging and focus are wrong. A ruling party’s campaign strategy should be way beyond mere smearing of opponents but should be anchored in delivering its manifesto.

The PF must accept that things are bad. The cost of living is getting higher and higher. Jobs are few and afar apart. In fact the country is losing jobs. The agriculture sector has struggled from the time PF tookover in 2011 with no single year posting a successful in puts distribution or marketing season. Access to higher education or skills development is becoming harder and harder making youths more and more frustrated. These are the realities on the ground. Now add to all that the current massive electricity loadsheding going to a whole day in some cases.

Yes there is an infrastructure program in place. But at what cost? Also the much sang about unprecedented development is neither here nor there. It’s a fact that all our key roads are falling apart in large sections. The Livingstone Lusaka, Lusaka Chingola, Kapiri Nakonde are all in need of urgent and serious attention. Equally those sontables that PF keep singing about are not wide spread. This is why the PF struggled to sonta at anything in Chilanga, Kafue, Sesheke, Bahati Roan, Katuba and Kaoma and had to depend on bribes of food, bicycles and money and to blame the past MPs for lack development in those areas. Truth be told the PF need to sober up in this regard and accept that their infrastructure program is not as intense as they would want us to believe.

The bad behavior of PF carders, and sometimes aided in that bad behavior by state functionaries especially the police, also puts off the ordinary citizens. Police conduct under PF has become so bad that many people now believe this key security maintenance institution has been infiltrated by PF caders.

There have been so many bells that should have made the PF realize that the general populace is becoming more and more disenchanted with them. If they say in 2015 they only had a few days to sell their candidate, what about 2016 election which came after almost 2 years of President Lungu being firmly in power. They only won that election by 100, 000 votes after widespread irregularities and blatant illegalities some of which are now highlighted in the 2016 voting patterns report. That narrow 100, 000 margin should have made them realize that there was a lot of work to be done. Instead maybe they interpreted it to mean that they can always get away with anything and certain types of people will always vote for them.

The lose of Roan constituency, after Davies Mwila swore to step down as PF SG if that happened, should have been the clearest signal that people on the Copperbelt and the nation at large are not happy.

The problem with the PF is that whenever they suffer such a set back they assume the problem is political and immediately start looking for a political solution. No. The problem is the economy, the problem is lack of jobs, the problem is the corruption that has taken root in the PF govt among other things. If the PF govt resolves these things, they will make it easy for their political operatives.

Two years is long enough time to allow the ruling party put their house in order and try and turn around the economy. But the longer they wait, the more time runs out.

UPND
The UPND has shown itself to be a very resilient party if not the most resilient in the history of this country. But being in opposition for more than 20 years must surely be hurting by now. The party should have won the 2001 election but missed it by a whisker. They should have won 2015 and 2016 but again lost by painfully narrow margins.

Why?
One gets the feeling that the UPND misjudges the work that is needed to unseat a ruling party especially in an African setup. The party gets carried away with any slight favorable wind blowing in its direction. Immediately excitement overruns the camp, small cartels pop up everywhere especially around the leader Hakainde Hichilema and information and ideas flow is stifled. Threats start flying around.

It would appear that Hakainde Hichilema and his team spend more time strategising on how they would run the country and lesser time on political strategies. This is exactly what Edgar Lungu said when he ditched the UPND back in 2001, ‘there are more managers in UPND than politicians’.

Preparing to govern is good (in fact its very good for the country) but you need political strategies to win a political war. For example if we were to advice the UPND we would have told them to go and camp in Milenge than hold that rally in Kitwe.

In the past two elections the UPND repeatedly boasted how that they had put in place a water tight vote protection system. The rest is history as they say. Just in the recent Kaoma chairmanship bye-election as a early as 20 hours the UPND were celebrating that they were headed for a landslide victory but when results were called they only won by 140 votes. Wynter Kabimba once said ‘the UPND will always make the same mistakes’. Can Zambia’s longest serving opposition party redeem itself beyond this perception?

Going back to the racecourse rally in Kitwe on Saturday. It was no doubt a wonderful day at the office for the opposition party. It doesnt matter how the party’s opponents want to spin the rally away, that was a huge rally by any standards and definitely raises the party’s profile. Especially having come on the back of GBM having left the party (perception was that he UPND anchor on the Copperbelt), the UPND being hammered right, left and by the PF on tribalism, homosexuality and lower Zambezi.

As good as that rally was does it translate into votes for UPND? No!! As VJ Mwaanga says ‘a week is a long time in politics’. What more two years!? The UPND need to screw their heads on the right way and put their feet firmly on the ground, literally!!

The UPND need to understand the issues that are making the people frustrated with the PF and work hard to leverage on that. Some of the issues could be resolved by 2021, even naturally, even if the PF don’t do anything. Take loadshedding for example, two good rain seasons and the problem could be largely redressed with or without additional generation capacity. And given incumbency and the infrastructure sprouting here and there would put the PF in quite a good position.

The UOND need to continue working on their relationship with the people of Zambia. They should continue to polish and built Hichilema’s image leveraging on his many positives. Similarly they must project a strong and competent team around Hichilema. They should go beyond issuing reactionary statements to PF blunders and start pushing out their own agenda. The party should open up a lot more to allow information and ideals to flow.

The opposition party must take the racecourses rally as a call to hard work because they have something to work on and work with. They should not by any means take it as a foregone conclusion.

HH has always complained that he has always had very little time to prepare for an election having been pushed into the first race by the death of Mazoka, then by Mwanawasa’s passing followed immediately by a general election, then the passing of Sata followed by soon by a general election. Well, now he has 5 years and it’s fast running.
How ready is he and UPND for 2021? Can they confidently go into 2021 on the basis of their hard work not PF mishaps?

NDC
It would suffice to say wow!! One would be tempted to agree with Kambwili that NDC is the fastest growing party in Zambia. To hold a rally in a PF stronghold, on the same day with the more established UPND and pull such a crowd is no easy thing. In fact one would have expected the NDC rally to have flopped for those very reasons.

Both PF and UPND can only take NDC lightly to their own disadvantage. In fact PF must be shocked that with all that they have at him, the court cases, the deregistion, Mwenye Musenge and the new NDCP and Imbwili and NDC is still not only marching on but attracting more people.

But as we have said of UPND, NDC must show its agenda beyond criticizing the PF. Also, who else is in NDC beyond Kambwili? Definitely there must be some good enough back room (for all the nice things they are doing) but some of those people need to be seen to compliment Kambwili.
But all in all, there is still a lot of work for NDC if they have to go toe to toe with incumbent PF and established UPND. NDC should not mistake Changanamai to mean that they have arrived, they have only began!!

Others
Well, the political space is tight. But one thing is for sure, 2021 won’t be a two race horse. We see NDC, Socialist party and DP impacting that election. But the SP and DP need to be more involved in the political discourse especially participating in by elections if only as way of establishing local presence and structures. Equally let them be seen to cooperate, from time to time, with other political parties or they risk being seen as selfish, self righteous and political recluses.

Zambia Political Blog.